Current and potential distribution of Xyleborus ferrugineus and Xyleborus volvulus (Coleoptera: Curculionidae) in Mexico

Abstract

Species distribution models are a useful tool to project their potential dispersion. The objective of this study was to define the current distribution and model the possible expansion of Xyleborus ferrugineus and Xyleborus volvulus in Mexico. The models were performed in the Maxent algorithm, 242 and 152 presence records for each species were used, and the WorldClim bioclimatic variables were used. The models were evaluated using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve; to evaluate the risks of extrapolation of the models, the Multivariate Environmental Similarity Surface was used. The variables that made up the final models of both species were: Bio 13, Bio 3, Bio 2, Bio 14 and Bio 5. No areas of climatic suitability for Xyleborus ferrugineus were found in the states of Aguascalientes, Guanajuato and Zacatecas, on the contrary, the states with the largest surface area with climatic suitability were Chiapas, Tamaulipas and Veracruz (60,202.4, 65,970.6, 67,397.4 km²). Regarding Xyleborus volvulus Baja California, Baja California Sur, Coahuila, Nuevo León have 0 km² of climatic suitability and the states with the largest surface area with climatic suitability were Jalisco, Chiapas and Veracruz (60,566.0, 64,154.9, 67,774.8 km²). This study showed that Mexico has extensive areas of climatic suitability for both insect species to establish themselves in areas where they are not currently present.