International Journal of Life Science and Agriculture Research

Global vegetable-oil markets are increasingly interconnected, allowing productivity changes in major producing countries to propagate through prices, trade, production, and economic activity. This study examined how simulated productivity improvements in major palm-oil and soybean-oil producing countries affected economic and social Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) indicators through global market linkages. A validated simultaneous-equation model of the global palm-oil and soybean-oil markets was used to conduct historical and forecasting simulations. The scenarios imposed exogenous productivity increases in major producing countries, namely Indonesia and Malaysia for palm oil and Brazil, China, Argentina, and the United States for soybean oil. The simulated effects were traced across four SDG-related indicators: decent work and economic growth, poverty, inequality, and hunger. The simulations revealed substantial cross-country spillovers from productivity shocks, demonstrating that improvements in production efficiency generated effects beyond the country where the shock originated. Economic responses were most consistently reflected in decent work and economic growth, while responses in poverty, inequality, and hunger were more heterogeneous across countries. Productivity gains in major exporters also altered competitive conditions between palm oil and soybean oil through changes in international supply, prices, and trade flows. The results further indicated that economic gains were not automatically translated into broad-based social improvements. Productivity enhancement in globally integrated vegetable-oil markets can strengthen economic performance while simultaneously generating heterogeneous social outcomes across producing countries. The findings highlight the importance of combining productivity-oriented strategies with value addition, inclusive distribution mechanisms, and social protection to ensure that market-driven economic gains contribute more broadly to sustainable development.

Productivity shocks, Vegetable-oil markets, Spillover effects, Simultaneous- equation model, Sustainable development, Cross-country transmission

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